An Align family project

Prediction markets,
scored honestly.

Align Predictions is a community prediction market where every forecast is public, every resolution is checkable, and your track record is the product. No punditry without receipts.

19–24wins–losses, 43 resolved calls
44%hit rate
3active frozen predictions

Last paper cycle: 2026-10-26 15:00 PDT. Data as of that cycle. Paper mode — no real money. Nothing here is financial advice.

Active predictions — frozen, resolving 2026-10-27

bitcoinDOWN
Frozen baseline 80,686.40 (baseline 2026-10-27)
Resolves 2026-10-28 · status: frozen/locked
forecast c6bf7c8f-064e-4844-9803-8cab93491e35
USD/JPYDOWN
Frozen baseline 157.8200 (baseline 2026-10-27)
Resolves 2026-10-28 · status: frozen/locked
forecast 5e4bb9a8-d4fd-44b1-b2bf-7951d178d0c3
USD/MXNUP
Frozen baseline 18.6368 (baseline 2026-10-27)
Resolves 2026-10-28 · status: frozen/locked
forecast 114e037b-2584-4bf6-a266-92cf31f759bc

Track record by category

CategoryWinsLossesHit rate
crypto7750%
japanese yen5742%
mexican peso7558%
silver010%
us dollar010%
stock exchange010%
gold010%
oil010%

Resolved calls — full history (43)

ResolvedCategoryCallBaselineCloseResult
2026-10-27japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN157.4500157.8200loss
2026-10-27mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.615518.6368WIN
2026-10-27cryptobitcoin DOWN79,751.4180,686.40loss
2026-10-26japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN156.8000157.4500loss
2026-10-26mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.782318.6155loss
2026-10-26cryptobitcoin DOWN80,402.6579,751.41WIN
2026-10-25cryptobitcoin DOWN80,456.5180,402.65WIN
2026-10-24cryptobitcoin DOWN81,337.6080,456.51WIN
2026-10-23cryptobitcoin DOWN81,178.3481,337.60loss
2026-10-23japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN157.0500156.8000WIN
2026-10-23mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.761318.7823WIN
2026-10-22cryptobitcoin UP84,626.7381,178.34loss
2026-10-22japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN157.8800157.0500WIN
2026-10-22mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.482318.7613WIN
2026-10-21cryptobitcoin UP82,763.6384,626.73WIN
2026-10-21japanese yenUSD/JPY UP158.1300157.8800loss
2026-10-21mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.521618.4823loss
2026-10-20cryptobitcoin UP81,950.1482,763.63WIN
2026-10-20mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.483718.5216WIN
2026-10-20japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN158.2400158.1300WIN
2026-10-19cryptobitcoin DOWN81,665.3581,950.14loss
2026-10-19japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN158.0200158.2400loss
2026-10-19mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.383518.4837WIN
2026-10-16cryptobitcoin DOWN82,012.7081,701.86WIN
2026-10-16japanese yenUSD/JPY DOWN157.9800158.0200loss
2026-10-16mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.522518.3835loss
2026-10-15cryptobitcoin DOWN81,706.3482,012.70loss
2026-10-15japanese yenUSD/JPY UP158.4500157.9800loss
2026-10-15mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.365318.5225WIN
2026-10-14japanese yenUSD/JPY UP158.1200158.4500WIN
2026-10-14cryptobitcoin UP83,013.0281,706.34loss
2026-10-14mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.334818.3653WIN
2026-10-13silversilver DOWN54.350054.3500loss
2026-10-13cryptobitcoin DOWN83,010.7283,358.53loss
2026-10-13us dollarUUP UP29.130029.1300loss
2026-10-13japanese yenUSD/JPY UP158.6000158.1200loss
2026-10-13mexican pesoUSD/MXN UP18.341818.3348loss
2026-10-13stock exchangeSPY UP778.1000778.1000loss
2026-10-13goldgold UP382.1500382.1500loss
2026-10-13oiloil UP151.0300151.0300loss
2026-10-12cryptobitcoin DOWN83,580.9783,010.72WIN
2026-10-12japanese yenUSD/JPY UP158.2500158.6000WIN
2026-10-12mexican pesoUSD/MXN DOWN18.200118.3418loss

Prices rounded for display (bitcoin 2dp, FX 4dp); full precision in predictions.json.

1 · PredictStake your call on a dated, falsifiable hypothesis.
2 · FreezeEntries lock before the outcome window opens.
3 · ResolveOutcomes settled against public sources.
4 · ScoreCalibration tracked over time. Skill compounds.
How this works. Signal v0 is 5-session momentum (P-013) — a placeholder whose record is the point. The paper loop runs daily at 15:00 PT: it resolves due calls, appends them to the ledger, and freezes the next day's calls.

Coverage note (2026-10-26 cycle). Five categories failed to lock new calls this cycle (stock exchange, gold, oil, silver, us dollar) — the loop records each as “Target deadline (resolveBy) must be after the as-of time.” The active book above is therefore the three categories that froze: crypto, japanese yen, mexican peso.